Watching the Taiwan Question as Trump Meets With Xi

Taiwan is a bit nervous, though Trump has demonstrated an understanding of the broader geostrategic challenge of China—and what’s really at stake—far better than his predecessors Biden or Obama. Financial Times: President Donald Trump has sparked alarm in Taipei and among Asian allies by saying he would discuss American arms sales to Taiwan with Xi Jinping when the US and  Chinese leaders meet in Beijing this week. Ahead of departing Washington on his first visit to China since 2017, Trump said he would discuss the issue with Xi, breaking decades of precedent on not consulting with Beijing on US arms exports to Taiwan. “President Xi would like us not to, and I’ll have that discussion,” Trump said this week. Trump’s comment has sparked concern among US allies, according to several people familiar with the matter (Financial Times). There’s no question: President Xi and the CCP are pursuing “reunification.” Historian Niall Ferguson points out that Taiwan has never been ruled from Beijing. Ferguson has his eyes—broadly speaking—on two big pieces: the semiconductor crisis and the signal that it would send in Cold War II if the CCP succeeds: I’ve said it before: The Taiwan Semiconductor Crisis will be the defining moment of Cold War II. It would be preferable to fast-forward to détente without the nerve-shredding phase of brinkmanship. But that’s not up to Trump. In the end, it’s up to Xi—and how close to the brink he’s prepared to go to achieve compellence, and the coveted prize of Taiwan (Free Press).

Iran’s Economy Continues to Collapse in Front of Us

What Operation Epic Fury has done militarily to Iran is pretty clear. It was devastating. What we are doing under Operation Economic Fury is—daily—continuing to destroy the regime. Zineb Riboua, picking up with her explanation of how the sanctions under Trump are categorically different than earlier sanction efforts: Understanding it requires recognizing that previous rounds of sanctions fell short precisely because China absorbed Iran’s crude through teapot refineries, moved its funds through shadow banking networks, and supplied the IRGC with the intelligence infrastructure that kept its regional operations functional. Economic Fury goes after all of it. As Secretary Bessent put it: “We will relentlessly target the regime’s ability to generate, move, and repatriate funds, and pursue anyone enabling Tehran’s attempts to evade sanctions.” … Those watching the ceasefire negotiations and concluding that the conflict is winding down are misreading the situation in ways that carry real analytical consequence, because while the strikes have paused, Operation Economic Fury continues to function as both the accelerator and the anchor of what the military phase set in motion, converting battlefield destruction into institutional deterioration that compounds over time and denies the IRGC the fiscal and organizational capacity to reconstitute what Epic Fury dismantled (Riboua).

Netanyahu Made Secret Trip to UAE During Iran War

Solidifying the relationship, furthering the Abraham Accords as the region is re-shaped. Financial Times: Benjamin Netanyahu secretly visited the United Arab Emirates in the midst of the US-Israeli war against Iran and met the Gulf state’s president Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed al-Nahyan, the Israeli prime minister’s office said. The trip underscores how the conflict has deepened relations between the two states, with the UAE now seeking to double down on its partnership with Israel and increase defence and economic co-operation (Financial Times). Amit Segal: A few striking details regarding the new of Netanyahu’s visit to the UAE: 1. A covert flight reportedly took place while Israeli airspace was fully shut—without leaks or detection. 2. Sources suggest a deal was reached on an Iron Dome shipment. 3. UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan has publicly hosted Israeli leaders like Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid—but not Benjamin Netanyahu. Until now, their contacts stayed behind closed doors (Segal).

New York Times Publishes Blood Libel; Israeli Ambassador Responds

The piece from Nicholas Kristof accused Israel of using dogs to rape Palestinian prisoners (New York Times). It was clearly an effort to steal attention from the authoritative report on Hamas atrocities that Daybreak covered yesterday. Israeli Ambassador to the United States Yechiel Leiter felt compelled to respond. He did so on The Scott Jennings Show: It’s insidious and there’s an insouciance about it. There’s a kind of shrug your shoulders—who cares?—attitude about it, no matter what lies we spread…. And what happened yesterday, what Nick Kristof is guilty of is the blood libel. The same way we didn’t put blood in our wafers for Passover and we didn’t poison wells in the Middle Ages. We don’t starve people and we don’t train dogs to rape people. The New York Times is now coupled with Tucker Carlson and a whole group of conspiratorial podcasters who blame everything on Israel and the Jewish people. You got an itch on your behind that’s the Jewish people behind it. Anything you can think of. There’s a disease out there, the Jews are responsible. A lack of peace in the Middle East, the Jews are responsible. The budget deficit in the United States, the Jews are responsible. This has a history and Scott, it doesn’t end well (Jennings).

Pope Leo Gives Top Diplomatic Honor to Iran’s Ambassador

And Iranian state media is making the most of it. Christopher Hale: Pope Leo XIV has named Mohammad Hossein Mokhtari, Iran’s ambassador to the Vatican, a Knight of the Grand Cross of the Pontifical Order of Pius IX, according to a certificate dated May 8 and signed by Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the pope’s Secretary of State. The honor raises the Iranian envoy to one of the most senior classes of the highest active papal order, founded in 1847 by Pope Pius IX and conferred today on senior diplomats and heads of state…. Iranian state media is not treating this as a routine retirement honor. PressTV and the West Asia News Agency are running the certificate alongside images of Mokhtari with Pope Leo XIV, framing the medal as a counter-signal from an American pope to a wartime American president — a quiet diplomatic verdict on Donald Trump’s bombing campaign against Iran (Hale). Marc Thiessen: Truly, Leo has lost the plot (Thiessen).

Kevin Warsh Confirmed to Lead Federal Reserve in Narrowest Vote Ever

Only one Democrat voted to confirm Warsh—John Fetterman of Pennsylvania. Bloomberg: The 54-45 vote Wednesday was the slimmest confirmation margin ever for a head of the central bank, reflecting polarized politics in Congress and Democratic fears that Warsh will bend to President Donald Trump’s demands to rapidly lower interest rates…. The incoming chairman’s vote margin came in under Janet Yellen’s 56-26 tally in 2014. Bipartisan support for Fed picks used to be the rule, rather than the exception, with Alan Greenspan even winning unanimous support to continue as Fed chair in 2000 (Bloomberg). Senate Majority Leader Thune: “Kevin Warsh seems to have just the profile of a Federal Reserve chairman—yet Democrats oppose his nomination…This is just how bad ‘Trump Derangement Syndrome’ has gotten on the other side of the aisle” (C-SPAN). Former Chairman Powell criticized Trump for abandoning protocol in his blunt and vocal criticism of the Fed. The irony should not get lost: Powell is now abandoning protocol himself in his refusal to leave the Fed board—and thus denying Trump another appointment. Also: When Warsh was confirmed for his earlier stint on the Fed board in 2006, he was approved overwhelmingly by voice vote, no vote count needed (Congress).

Leading Democrat for US Senate Seat in Michigan Says He’s a Doctor; Politico Is Not So Sure

Abdul El-Sayed is currently the leading Democratic candidate for the party’s nomination for the open Senate seat in Michigan (RCP). Readers might remember him for his anti-Israel, antisemitic comments, including his conspicuously weak response to the attack on Temple Israel, a Reform synagogue outside of Detroit (Free Press). El-Sayed has long boasted of being a physician. Politico took a closer look: Michigan Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed for years has publicly said he’s a physician — but there’s overwhelming evidence that he’s had no experience as a licensed medical doctor. This April, he gave an interview to a local TV journalist where he talked up his credentials as a physician multiple times. In March, he told a group of Teamsters nurses that he had “been in enough codes to watch who really does the work” and said that same month on a podcast that “I’ve been a doctor my whole career.” … According to a review of Michigan and New York state medical records, he’s never been granted a medical license in those states (Politico). The progressives are pushing El-Sayed hard (American Prospect).

Republicans Surge in Early Voting in California

The California primary is June 2. Early voting started May 4. And, notably: The last time a Republican won any statewide office was 20 years ago in 2006, when Arnold Schwarzenegger won the governor’s seat and Steve Poizner won the race for Insurance Commissioner (Cal Matters). Could 2026 be the year to break the all-blue curse? New York Post: Is it a red wave, or are California voters coming down with a case of blue flu? These are questions political insiders and data nerds are trying to answer after Republicans showed surprising strength in the first wave of mail ballot returns for next month’s primary election. GOP voters accounted for 34% of early ballot returns as of Friday, up 8% compared to the same stage of the 2022 midterms, according to data compiled by research firm PDI…. On the Republican side, former Fox News host Steve Hilton appears to have a firm lead on Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco. Most polls have Becerra and Hilton looking like the frontrunners to advance out of the state’s “jungle” primary system, which ignores party affiliation and has created anxiety on both sides of the political spectrum about being shut out of the November runoff (New York Post).

Trump Administration Withholding $1.3 Billion From California as Golden State Drags Their Feet on Fraud

The announcement came from Vice President Vance as his efforts as Fraud Czar continue. Vance on Wednesday: We’re announcing that the federal government is deferring $1.3 billion in Medicaid reimbursements from the state of California. And the simple reason is because the state of California has not taken fraud very seriously…. Let me highlight the fact that this really is two separate victims: So, there are California taxpayers and American taxpayers who are being defrauded because California isn’t taking its program seriously, but also you have people who’ve been prescribed medications that they don’t even need. Sometimes they’ve had drugs put into their bodies that they don’t need because fraudsters have actually encouraged false prescriptions and false administration of medications (Rapid Response). John Sexton at Hot Air: The Trump administration, in the form of Vice President J.D. Vance and the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS), announced a crackdown on fraud today. Vance, who holds the unofficial title of fraud czar, announced that $1.3 billion in Medicaid funds would be withheld from California (Hot Air).

Speaker Johnson Issues Warning on Left: ‘This is about moving away from a constitutional republic to a communist utopian ideology’

This is what many readers have, no doubt, been feeling. What’s notable is that we have a leader willing to express these concerns clearly and succinctly. Speaker Johnson: The way I describe it in summary is that they’re little “mini Mamdanis” popping up all around the country, okay? And they’re openly avowed socialist Marxist ideology. This is something that we have never seen before in American history. The Tea Party reset in the Republican Party was about fiscal responsibility. This is about moving away from a constitutional republic to a communist, utopian ideology. And that’s a dangerous thing for the future of the country. The problem we have is the insurgent left, the far left has all the energy and excitement and the money in the Democratic Party. This is not our father’s Democratic party anymore. They’re going far, far left and no one’s there to stop it. And that’s a dangerous thing (Johnson).